On this podcast episode, I talk about the impact of corona on real estate and how this will affect real estate investors, wholesalers and flippers. The great pricing reset of 2020 or what I like to call the “Covid 19 Effect” is related to how pricing in the real estate markets has been immediately reset for wholesalers, real estate investors and lenders. Cash buyers for wholesale deals are cautious right now and are either not buying at all, or they are expecting substantial discounts to move forward on a purchase. We have put a 20% safety margin on all purchases in place to protect ourselves. Capital markets are currently discounting pricing at around 80% to 85% which means they are willing to sell $100,000 loans that they originated a month ago for $80,000 to $85,000 just to get those loans off their books. So I think that a 20% safety margin works (for now). Could pricing get worse? We think it could. Ultimately this will translate into a pricing reset in the retail markets. The reason for this is because 22 million+ people that are laid off or unemployed because of Corona are not going to all be hired back immediately. That is going to take time (years). Many companies will fold and shut down for good. We have to assume that a good percentage of the 22 million unemployed people will be out of work for some period of time. Even if we assume that 17 million people are immediately hired back then that is still 5 million unemployed people. And for those people that own homes, if they cannot make their mortgage payments they will go into foreclosure. And that will result in an uptick in short sales and bank owned properties as banks are forced to foreclose and take the properties back. That may sound bleak. But the reality is that there are hedge funds and private equity funds with trillions of dollars that are ready to pounce on this opportunity. This will ultimately be an amazing opportunity to buy real estate and rental properties at a huge discount. And I don’t anticipate that discount to be around for too long. Since interest rates are so low, you can now borrow money at less than the inflation rate. I received a quote on a 15 year mortgage yesterday of as low as 2.25%. If you can borrow money at less than the inflation rate to buy an asset that beats inflation and that you will own free and clear one day then that is a winning formula. So my suggestion is use this as an opportunity to buy real estate. Lock in those low rates. Don’t wait to buy real estate. Buy real estate and wait.
